Okay....I'll try again. Here is the official summer forecast ...above normal from June to August....we shall see...
Headlines:
Above normal summer in eastern half
Drought-driven heat in Plains / western Midwest
Cool Northwest
The Official MDA Summer 2013 Outlook shows a dominating warm signal across much of the eastern half to eastern two-thirds of the US. Essentially all areas of the nation east of the Rockies are shown to see fairly consistently above normal temperatures throughout the season with the areas of the Central and Southern Plains showing the largest departures. Overall, this forecast for the June-August period of 955 population weighted CDDs would rank in the top 5 since official historical records began in 1950. The primary contributors to MDA’s consensus forecast reasoning are as follows: expectations of a return to a qualified La Nina event along with the persisting –PDO in the North Pacific, soil moisture deficit (i.e. drought) feedback across much of the central US, warm contributions from a +AMO in the Atlantic, and numerous long range physical model guidance. All of these factors at varying significance are suggesting a generally warm to even hot pattern for much of the eastern US throughout the season. Continued attention to the potential Spring rains and its impact on the drought as well as the evolution of the Pacific will be required as we progress through the Spring. With the expectation that the Nina event will continue to evolve thanks to signals from the North Pacific, subsurface features of the central Pacific, and features from the Indian Ocean we foresee a general pattern that continues to keep precip events in the Plains at a relative minimum and allows the drought signal to continue into the summer. - Travis Hartman